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FaceBook South Africa - 3 Month Growth Trend Analysis and Projections.

Passionately curious about everything and anything, FaceBook, but the South African audience more specifically, greatly entices that curiosity of mine.

Three months ago I shared with you an overview and some statistics on FaceBook South Africa. Using the same data gathered from that exercise, plus a new round of gathering data, I am able to share with you a three month growth trend analysis (Pictured Above).

The General Growth Overview:
• Total FaceBook SA Audience grew from 1 877 560 local users in September to 2 318 260.
• Adding 440 700 new local users within that 3 month period.
• With a growth percentage of about 23,47% (Rounded off to 2 decimal places)

The Age Group Growth Overview:
• Sorted by the highest growth percentage recorded to the lowest…

Concluding Remarks:
• Of the newly added 440 700 local users, 11 in every 25 users were ether or below the age 25.
• The age group 31 to 55 years seems rather non-responsive, being collectively responsible for a mere 17% contribution towards overall growth. Indication of Web 2.0 influence/interest?
• Interestingly, the “elderly” groups (56+) are tending to show similar growth patterns, I hope this has something to do with the soaring young age of FaceBook SA. Grandmas and Grandpa’s connecting with their dear grandkids.

Should this growth rate not depreciate but rather be sustained:
• Over the next three months, we should see the local audience appreciate to just shy of 3M.
• Then, six months later I’m expecting the 3.5M mark crossed.
• Finally, Twelve months later local FaceBook users should be just short of 5.5M.

Of course there are many factors which could influence the accuracy of these projections, which I have not taken into account.

My intention here is not to provide 100% accurate projections, but rather well backed conjectures to satisfy my curiosity about FaceBook SA and then share back with the community ;-)

Please Note: ALL data was collected from FaceBook’s Advertising tool. All percentages are rounded off, some to two decimal places. I don’t mind sharing the working out to satisfy discrepancies

Tags: marketing, social, trends, web

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Comment by Mark Kaigwa on November 25, 2009 at 3:09pm: Wow, Eshaam, these are some great insights.

Though I'm not on that side of the equator, it's great to see this kind of data derived from Facebook's existing Advertising tool, especially relating to the Africa. SA's really taken Facebook head on. Kenya's a little behind, with just over 500,000, but it's been growing steadily, so we can expect it to pick up before the end of the year and beyond.

I'm curious about the working out, if you've got a couple moments to share.

Comment by Eshaam Rabaney on November 26, 2009 at 1:11am: Mark, Thanks!

Usually data and trends published by the guys like Techcrunch and Mashable are bias from a global or US view. So I suppose we are forced to embrace our African Innovativeness and make do with what we have ;-)

Yes, I’ve been keeping a passive eye on FaceBook Africa too. Egypt and SA being rather similar in numbers whereas Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya remain under 1M and of course Morocco just crossing over the 1M mark. It’s very interesting.

I suppose you are meaning the working out for the projections? I’ve been keeping a separate data sheet, so using this data sheet in conjunction with a simple mathematical appreciation formula.

m
P = U ( 1 + G)
P = Projection
U = Current Total Users
G = Growth Percentage
m = No. of months

So, you are solving for P (the projection) which will remain the unknown. Your data will be inputed U, G and m. Then of course at the end of the formula you would have solved for P ;-)

Please know that I am NO mathematician or statistician and neither is it a solid formula to attach other variables to. To me its just about understanding whats happening.

Hope this finds you well.

Comment by Kamini Pather on November 27, 2009 at 1:44pm: Hi Eshaam

Great research. Oddly enough, I've been noticing this phenomenon myself. I'm in contact with a few of the 60+ members in my family.

I'm quite interested to see if Facebook continues to grow or if something new takes its place. The reason for my curiosity is that surely, due to the 60+ popularity, it means that FB has in fact reached critical mass. Over and above that, many of the younger FB junkies are concerned about privacy breaches and messy disclosures, which could cause them to look for the next best thing.

I await the next exciting episode...

Comment by Eshaam Rabaney on December 1, 2009 at 2:45pm: Hi Kamini

I’m glad I am not alone in having noted this phenomenon; I feel a whole lot less insane, thanks :-)
I will argue that FaceBook has strong relationships with the current society trends within our SA culture. I think that it is because of these relationships FaceBook has (across the different societies in SA), grown to this point and will continue.

It is this same reason why I would not bet on seeing radical transitions to the next best thing. The audience or rather our friends, family and those other locals we have yet to meet are all on Facebook. (It’s where the hype is).

However, I will argue with you on privacy causing the younger FB to search for the next best thing. I think it is quite the opposite and all about being noticed and having many friends to show how cool you are.

But yes, in due time I will unpack more of FaceBook SA exclusively on Huddlemind. Don’t go anywhere;-)